After a strong start to 2025, February saw some of the shine come off the US exceptionalism story. Growing uncertainty about the impact of the US administration’s policy agenda weighed on both corporate and consumer sentiment, and concerns about growth started to re-emerge.

Investors saw a strong start to 2025, with equities and bonds broadly delivering positive returns while underscoring risks associated with U.S. market concentration.

Reflecting on 2024, the global economy revealed significant divergences, with the US demonstrating robust performance in contrast to Europe’s subdued recovery. As we look ahead to 2025, easing inflation and potential ECB rate cuts offer prospects for growth, despite lingering structural and political risks.

Trump’s election has been the main driver om markets in November. Although US equities and the dollar have reacted positively, significant uncertainty remains.